I see the stock market in the US moving up, but hesitatingly. Sure, this is just a daily poll on people whose business is to know the future. I don't have much skin in the game, so my opinion is not that well informed. Be that as it may. This is what I see.
My personal situation has to be factor in, so you can draw your own conclusion.
I am a Mexican American thinker, born in Mexico City, who has worked in academia most of his life, my first paying job teaching, was when I was around twenty years of age, I am sixty seven years old now, and retired. I've worked in the private sector as well, both in two big corporations, and in a startup.
Part of my job, in one of the big corporations, was to study the market. I saw first hand, how the second corporation, treated the market, even though, nobody expected my opinion to change their business decisions.
Obviously I had my opinions, whether or not they asked me.
Like Noam Chomsky, I have followed the news since I can remember, unlike him though, I do not know as much as he does. I do read non-fiction books, apart from the news, outside of my area of comfort, which is Theoretical Physics.
Apart from the market per se, I am a scientist, and try to use the scientific method, at least to the extent that sums have to add up, and logic has to be used.
Since the US elected a new president, I have seen a change in the economic activity where I reside, in the plains of Illinois.
I have another blog, Relevant Science, but this blog is more personal, and I am more vested in what I post here. I am a liberal, like professor Paul Krugman from CUNY.
Recently I read a poet whose son was killed at a young age, after an altercation in a bar, saying that the people who killed his son, knew few words. This is an important observation; the less words you know, the more you act differently from those who know many more words than you do. Now with Twitter, you only have to use 140 characters, which you can reuse, as many times as you want.
Now what?
I predict a bubble.
Bubbles are innate to the market economy, thus I expect the historical levels reached by the DJIA, in the US recently, to be sustainable only for four or eight years. The main reason being, that the elected president, does not have a plan which adds up.
I believe this, because there is no blueprint of this candidate's economic program.
If you do have some skin in the game, maybe this is the time for due diligence, and invest somewhere else. If I knew where, I'd be investing myself.
Maybe countries with the fastest rates of growth. Some names come to mind, China, India, and maybe Brazil, if OPEC actually uses the power of oil market monopoly. The elected president of the US is not a friend of Muslim countries yet. Unless and until he lowers the volume in Twitter, do not expect Saudia Arabia, and Iran to come to the table.
If you want to bet for fracking in the US, go talk to the Dakota Nation Leaders that stopped the DAP project.
