Thursday, November 20, 2014
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Wednesday, November 12, 2014
Monday, November 3, 2014
Friday, October 31, 2014
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
Thursday, April 3, 2014
Thursday, March 6, 2014
Saturday, March 1, 2014
Monday, February 24, 2014
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Writing Off the Unemployed
Back in 1987 my Princeton colleague Alan Blinder published a very good book titled “Hard Heads, Soft Hearts.” It was, as you might guess, a call for tough-minded but compassionate economic policy. Unfortunately, what we actually got — especially, although not only, from Republicans — was the opposite. And it’s difficult to find a better example of the hardhearted, softheaded nature of today’s G.O.P. than what happened last week, as Senate Republicans once again used the filibuster to block aid to the long-term unemployed.
What do we know about long-term unemployment in America?
First, it’s still at near-record levels. Historically, the long-term unemployed — those out of work for 27 weeks or more — have usually been between 10 and 20 percent of total unemployment. Today the number is 35.8 percent. Yet extended unemployment benefits, which went into effect in 2008, have now been allowed to lapse. As a result, few of the long-term unemployed are receiving any kind of support.
Second, if you think the typical long-term unemployed American is one of Those People — nonwhite, poorly educated, etc. — you’re wrong, according to research by the Urban Institute’s Josh Mitchell. Half of the long-term unemployed are non-Hispanic whites. College graduates are less likely to lose their jobs than workers with less education, but once they do they are actually a bit more likely than others to join the ranks of the long-term unemployed. And workers over 45 are especially likely to spend a long time unemployed.
Third, in a weak job market long-term unemployment tends to be self-perpetuating, because employers in effect discriminate against the jobless. Many people have suspected that this was the case, and last year Rand Ghayad of Northeastern University provided adramatic confirmation. He sent out thousands of fictitious résumés in response to job ads, and found that potential employers were drastically less likely to respond if the fictitious applicant had been out of work more than six months, even if he or she was better qualified than other applicants.
What all of this suggests is that the long-term unemployed are mainly victims of circumstances — ordinary American workers who had the bad luck to lose their jobs (which can happen to anyone) at a time of extraordinary labor market weakness, with three times as many people seeking jobs as there are job openings. Once that happened, the very fact of their unemployment made it very hard to find a new job.
So how can politicians justify cutting off modest financial aid to their unlucky fellow citizens?
Some Republicans justified last week’s filibuster with the tired old argument that we can’t afford to increase the deficit. Actually, Democrats paired the benefits extension with measures to increase tax receipts. But in any case this is a bizarre objection at a time when federal deficits are not just falling, but clearly falling too fast, holding back economic recovery.
For the most part, however, Republicans justify refusal to help the unemployed by asserting that we have so much long-term unemployment because people aren’t trying hard enough to find jobs, and that extended benefits are part of the reason for that lack of effort.
People who say things like this — people like, for example, Senator Rand Paul — probably imagine that they’re being tough-minded and realistic. In fact, however, they’re peddling a fantasy at odds with all the evidence. For example: if unemployment is high because people are unwilling to work, reducing the supply of labor, why aren’t wagesgoing up?
But evidence has a well-known liberal bias. The more their economic doctrine fails — remember how the Fed’s actions were supposed to produce runaway inflation? — the more fiercely conservatives cling to that doctrine. More than five years after a financial crisis plunged the Western world into what looks increasingly like a quasi-permanent slump, making nonsense of free-market orthodoxy, it’s hard to find a leading Republican who has changed his or her mind on, well, anything.
And this imperviousness to evidence goes along with a stunning lack of compassion.
If you follow debates over unemployment, it’s striking how hard it is to find anyone on the Republican side even hinting at sympathy for the long-term jobless. Being unemployed is always presented as a choice, as something that only happens to losers who don’t really want to work. Indeed, one often gets the sense that contempt for the unemployed comes first, that the supposed justifications for tough policies are after-the-fact rationalizations.
The result is that millions of Americans have in effect been written off — rejected by potential employers, abandoned by politicians whose fuzzy-mindedness is matched only by the hardness of their hearts.
Monday, February 3, 2014
Monday, January 27, 2014
[1401.3711] A Be-type star with a black hole companion
[1401.3711] A Be-type star with a black hole companion:
Stellar-mass black holes have all been discovered through X-ray emission, which arises from the accretion of gas from their binary companions (this gas is either stripped from low-mass stars or supplied as winds from massive ones). Binary evolution models also predict the existence of black holes accreting from the equatorial envelope of rapidly spinning Be-type stars (stars of the Be type are hot blue irregular variables showing characteristic spectral emission lines of hydrogen). Of the ~80 Be X-ray binaries known in the Galaxy, however, only pulsating neutron stars have been found as companions. A black hole was formally allowed as a solution for the companion to the Be star MWC 656 (also known as HD 215227), although that was based on a single radial velocity curve of the Be star, a mistaken spectral classification and rough estimates of the inclination angle. Here we report observations of an accretion disk line mirroring the orbit of the Be star. This, together with an improved radial velocity curve of the Be star through fitting sharp Fe II profiles from the equatorial disk, and a refined Be classification (to that of a B1.5-B2 III star), reveals a black hole of 3.8 to 6.9 solar masses orbiting MWC 656, the candidate counterpart of the gamma-ray source AGL J2241+4454. The black hole is X-ray quiescent and fed by a radiatively inefficient accretion flow giving a luminosity less than 1.6 x 10-7 times the Eddington luminosity. This implies that Be binaries with black-hole companions are difficult to detect by conventional X-ray surveys.
'via Blog this'
Stellar-mass black holes have all been discovered through X-ray emission, which arises from the accretion of gas from their binary companions (this gas is either stripped from low-mass stars or supplied as winds from massive ones). Binary evolution models also predict the existence of black holes accreting from the equatorial envelope of rapidly spinning Be-type stars (stars of the Be type are hot blue irregular variables showing characteristic spectral emission lines of hydrogen). Of the ~80 Be X-ray binaries known in the Galaxy, however, only pulsating neutron stars have been found as companions. A black hole was formally allowed as a solution for the companion to the Be star MWC 656 (also known as HD 215227), although that was based on a single radial velocity curve of the Be star, a mistaken spectral classification and rough estimates of the inclination angle. Here we report observations of an accretion disk line mirroring the orbit of the Be star. This, together with an improved radial velocity curve of the Be star through fitting sharp Fe II profiles from the equatorial disk, and a refined Be classification (to that of a B1.5-B2 III star), reveals a black hole of 3.8 to 6.9 solar masses orbiting MWC 656, the candidate counterpart of the gamma-ray source AGL J2241+4454. The black hole is X-ray quiescent and fed by a radiatively inefficient accretion flow giving a luminosity less than 1.6 x 10-7 times the Eddington luminosity. This implies that Be binaries with black-hole companions are difficult to detect by conventional X-ray surveys.
'via Blog this'
[astro-ph/0701358] Dark Matter in an n-Space Expanding Universe
[astro-ph/0701358] Dark Matter in an n-Space Expanding Universe:
The total number of degrees of freedom of a d-dimensional body in n-space is derived so that equipartition of energy may be applied to a possibly n-dimensional early universe. A comparison is made of a range of proposals to include free and bound black holes as either a small component or the dominant constituent of dark matter in the universe. The hypothesis that dark matter consists in part of atomic gravitationally bound primordial black holes is closely examined in 3-space, as well as in n-space; and the Chavda and Chavda holeum hypothesis is found to be flawed. Blackbody and Hawking radiation are generalized to n-space, and Hawking radiation is shown to be simply proportional to the black hole density. The importance of quantum gravity in understanding the role of early universe dark matter is undermined because present approaches to a theory of quantum gravity violate the equivalence principle. A general heuristic proof for geodesics on an expanding hypersphere is presented. Classical limits of Einstein's General Relativity are considered. A novel approach to the accelerated expansion of the universe is discussed. An anomalous surprising aspect of 4-space is demonstrated.
'via Blog this'
The total number of degrees of freedom of a d-dimensional body in n-space is derived so that equipartition of energy may be applied to a possibly n-dimensional early universe. A comparison is made of a range of proposals to include free and bound black holes as either a small component or the dominant constituent of dark matter in the universe. The hypothesis that dark matter consists in part of atomic gravitationally bound primordial black holes is closely examined in 3-space, as well as in n-space; and the Chavda and Chavda holeum hypothesis is found to be flawed. Blackbody and Hawking radiation are generalized to n-space, and Hawking radiation is shown to be simply proportional to the black hole density. The importance of quantum gravity in understanding the role of early universe dark matter is undermined because present approaches to a theory of quantum gravity violate the equivalence principle. A general heuristic proof for geodesics on an expanding hypersphere is presented. Classical limits of Einstein's General Relativity are considered. A novel approach to the accelerated expansion of the universe is discussed. An anomalous surprising aspect of 4-space is demonstrated.
'via Blog this'
Sunday, January 26, 2014
Gravity
This note is NOT about Alfonso Cuaron's movie. Go see it though, it is good. It is about the difference between this force and the other three known forces, nuclear-strong, nuclear-weak, and electromagnetic. I posted a video on the possibility that atoms are black-holes.
There is a puzzle in Physics right now, the atomic nucleus of Hydrogen, seems to have two different sizes, if we measure it with electrons, or with its weak cousin, the muon. So far no differences had been found between these two particles, leading the great physicist Isidor Rabi to ask, who ordered that? The new puzzle may answer this old question.
According to Roberto Onofrio, there is a way to test if muons, and electrons interact differently with the proton, due to a new component of Gravity.
That'll be neat.
The black hole bit, though, is another story altogether.
There is a puzzle in Physics right now, the atomic nucleus of Hydrogen, seems to have two different sizes, if we measure it with electrons, or with its weak cousin, the muon. So far no differences had been found between these two particles, leading the great physicist Isidor Rabi to ask, who ordered that? The new puzzle may answer this old question.
According to Roberto Onofrio, there is a way to test if muons, and electrons interact differently with the proton, due to a new component of Gravity.
That'll be neat.
The black hole bit, though, is another story altogether.
Sunday, January 12, 2014
[1301.3808] Formation of Regular Satellites from Ancient Massive Rings in the Solar System
[1301.3808] Formation of Regular Satellites from Ancient Massive Rings in the Solar System:
"When a planetary tidal disk -like Saturn's rings- spreads beyond the Roche radius (inside which planetary tides prevent aggregation), satellites form and migrate away. Here, we show that most regular satellites in the solar system probably formed in this way. According to our analytical model, when the spreading is slow, a retinue of satellites appear with masses increasing with distance to the Roche radius, in excellent agreement with Saturn's, Uranus', and Neptune's satellite systems. This suggests that Uranus and Neptune used to have massive rings that disappeared to give birth to most of their regular satellites. When the spreading is fast, only one large satellite forms, as was the case for Pluto and Earth. This conceptually bridges the gap between terrestrial and giant planet systems."
'via Blog this'
"When a planetary tidal disk -like Saturn's rings- spreads beyond the Roche radius (inside which planetary tides prevent aggregation), satellites form and migrate away. Here, we show that most regular satellites in the solar system probably formed in this way. According to our analytical model, when the spreading is slow, a retinue of satellites appear with masses increasing with distance to the Roche radius, in excellent agreement with Saturn's, Uranus', and Neptune's satellite systems. This suggests that Uranus and Neptune used to have massive rings that disappeared to give birth to most of their regular satellites. When the spreading is fast, only one large satellite forms, as was the case for Pluto and Earth. This conceptually bridges the gap between terrestrial and giant planet systems."
'via Blog this'
Monday, January 6, 2014
[astro-ph/0209276] Dynamical derivation of Bode's law
[astro-ph/0209276] Dynamical derivation of Bode's law:
"In a planetary or satellite system, idealized as n small bodies in initially coplanar, concentric orbits around a large central body, obeying Newtonian point-particle mechanics, resonant perturbations will cause dynamical evolution of the orbital radii except under highly specific mutual relationships, here derived analytically apparently for the first time. In particular, the most stable situation is achieved (in this idealized model) only when each planetary orbit is roughly twice as far from the Sun as the preceding one, as observed empirically already by Titius (1766) and Bode (1778) and used in both the discoveries of Uranus (1781) and the Asteroid Belt (1801). ETC."
'via Blog this'
"In a planetary or satellite system, idealized as n small bodies in initially coplanar, concentric orbits around a large central body, obeying Newtonian point-particle mechanics, resonant perturbations will cause dynamical evolution of the orbital radii except under highly specific mutual relationships, here derived analytically apparently for the first time. In particular, the most stable situation is achieved (in this idealized model) only when each planetary orbit is roughly twice as far from the Sun as the preceding one, as observed empirically already by Titius (1766) and Bode (1778) and used in both the discoveries of Uranus (1781) and the Asteroid Belt (1801). ETC."
'via Blog this'
Saturday, January 4, 2014
Paradigm Shifts
Nevertheless the opportunity was utterly blocked by the scientific paradigm of Laplacian determinism.
From Ivan I. Shevchenko
From Ivan I. Shevchenko
On the Principle of Least Action Interaction (Ovenden)
Springer
The history of the Titius-Bode Law is summarized, and possible explanations for the law are examined. Numerical integrations confirm the intuition that any N-body point-mass planetary system spends most of its time in configurations where the planetary interactions are least. This result is formalized into the Principle of Least Interaction Action, viz. that such a system will most often be found in a configuration where the time-mean of the action associated with the mutual interactions of the planets is a local minimum. It is shown that this principle leads to the resonant structures predicted (by a complementary argument) by Roy and Ovenden (1955), and found in the satellite systems of Jupiter and Saturn. Time-scale estimates show that the time of relaxation from an arbitrary configuration is short compared with the time spent near such a minimum interaction configuration. These results suggest that the present distribution of planetary and satellite orbits is the result of mutual perturbations, that tidal forces need not be invoked, and that the present distribution gives no information concerning the origin of the solar system.
However, if it can be shown that processes operate within the solar system that can rearrange the planetary orbits on a su~iciently short time-scale then we must conclude that the present distribution of planetary and satellite orbits contains no information about conditions at the time of formation of the solar system. The rest of this paper will be devoted to providing evidence that such a process does exist, in the mutual gravitational perturbations of one planet or satellite upon another.
From all these integrations a general characteristic stands out clearly. A system spends a short time with the planets close together and interacting violently, and spends most of its time with the planets far apart and interacting mildly, as is indeed to be expected from the most elementary consideration. We now formalize this elementary consideration into The Principle of Planetary Claustrophobia, namely that, in any system, the planets will spend most of their time as far away from each other as possible.
However, if it can be shown that processes operate within the solar system that can rearrange the planetary orbits on a su~iciently short time-scale then we must conclude that the present distribution of planetary and satellite orbits contains no information about conditions at the time of formation of the solar system. The rest of this paper will be devoted to providing evidence that such a process does exist, in the mutual gravitational perturbations of one planet or satellite upon another.
From all these integrations a general characteristic stands out clearly. A system spends a short time with the planets close together and interacting violently, and spends most of its time with the planets far apart and interacting mildly, as is indeed to be expected from the most elementary consideration. We now formalize this elementary consideration into The Principle of Planetary Claustrophobia, namely that, in any system, the planets will spend most of their time as far away from each other as possible.
Friday, January 3, 2014
Titius-Bode, Poveda and Rabinowitz
My friend Mario Rabinowitz just revived my interest on this relation, which the Mexican Astronomer Poveda has been studying for many years now.
Arcadio Poveda visited us at the Physics school of the University of Puebla (UAP) many years ago. Tapan Kumar Chatterjee invited him, when Dr. Chatterjee was a professor there. Poveda has been an original astronomer, and I have followed his work. Recently Dr. Poveda analyzed extra-solar planetary systems with the so-called Titius-Bode Law, which Rabinowitz told me was discovered by Johann Daniel Titius.
I believe that they are bound to be regularities for objects moving close to a plane, because they exert forces on each other. This is a formation issue, that likely requires computer calculations to derive. The main idea though, is that a planar many body problem follows regularities, as has been observed by the hexagonal structure in Jupiter. From those hexagons to some radius relation for planetary orbits, I just see computer work directed to finding it. One planet, pulling a nearby one, competing with other planets on the other side of the orbit, could produce an orbit, not too close, and not too far, like in the Goldilocks fairy tale. Order out of Chaos.
Arcadio Poveda visited us at the Physics school of the University of Puebla (UAP) many years ago. Tapan Kumar Chatterjee invited him, when Dr. Chatterjee was a professor there. Poveda has been an original astronomer, and I have followed his work. Recently Dr. Poveda analyzed extra-solar planetary systems with the so-called Titius-Bode Law, which Rabinowitz told me was discovered by Johann Daniel Titius.
I believe that they are bound to be regularities for objects moving close to a plane, because they exert forces on each other. This is a formation issue, that likely requires computer calculations to derive. The main idea though, is that a planar many body problem follows regularities, as has been observed by the hexagonal structure in Jupiter. From those hexagons to some radius relation for planetary orbits, I just see computer work directed to finding it. One planet, pulling a nearby one, competing with other planets on the other side of the orbit, could produce an orbit, not too close, and not too far, like in the Goldilocks fairy tale. Order out of Chaos.
Exoplanet Predictions Based on the Generalised Titius-Bode Relation
Jonathan Swift and the Moons of Mars
They have likewise discovered two lesser stars, or satellites, which revolve about Mars; whereof the innermost is distant from the centre of the primary planet exactly three of his diameters, and the outermost, five; the former revolves in the space of ten hours, and the latter in twenty-one and a half; so that the squares of their periodical times are very near in the same proportion with the cubes of their distance from the centre of Mars; which evidently shows them to be governed by the same law of gravitation that influences the other heavenly bodies.
Gulliver's Travels
Gulliver's Travels
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